How long does it take to have an accident?

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Killratio
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How long does it take to have an accident?

Post by Killratio »

I was just listening to one of Scott Perdue's accident analyses and he made a very interesting comment:

" The accident took just over 20 minutes from takeoff to impact."

Now read that again.

The old truism "never let an aeroplane take you somewhere your mind hasn't been 5 minutes before" refers. Almost invariably when there is an accident or incident that turns out badly, the pilot has done something, or failed to do something, that could have mitigated or avoided the results. Once in a very long while a wing just falls off in level flight (and in that case the " chain of events" will still apply but may not involve the pilot at all..that is just dead unlucky!) but in the main, the best way to not regret what you did five minutes ago is to plan for five minutes time.



If you would like to go 'a la recherche du temps Scott Perdue, he can be found on youtube under "FlyWire" .

Happy New Year, blue skys and reliable rpm to all. :wink:
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Ron Attwood
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Re: How long does it take to have an accident?

Post by Ron Attwood »

That cheered me up no end. :?
"It’s easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled"

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Killratio
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Re: How long does it take to have an accident?

Post by Killratio »

Ron Attwood wrote: 02 Jan 2022, 20:29 That cheered me up no end. :?
:D
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CAPFlyer
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Re: How long does it take to have an accident?

Post by CAPFlyer »

I caught that too. Gunny's FlyWire channel is one of my go-to's. He does a lot of really good stuff and if you want to fly the Bonanza, real world or sim, he's a channel you need to watch. He does a great job of showing what a Bonanza can (and can't) do. He's also great at taking his military & commercial experience to analyze incidents and accidents in a relatable way that whether pilot or not, you'll take lessons from it.
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DHenriques_
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Re: How long does it take to have an accident?

Post by DHenriques_ »

I've been back engineering aircraft accidents now for over 20 years.
Most accidents (incidents) are the result of a chain of events that lead into a final event that defines the incident.
Aircraft investigation begins at the point where the obvious has been eliminated.
Basically there are three factors involved if starting an investigation from an unknown cause;
1. Man
2. Machine
3. Environment

These three factors after intensive investigation will usually add up to reach a "Probable Cause"

Sounds simple enough. You wouldn't BELIEVE how difficult the process is that involves reaching the point where probable cause can be determined.

Dudley Henriques

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Killratio
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Re: How long does it take to have an accident?

Post by Killratio »

CAPFlyer wrote: 04 Jan 2022, 09:58 I caught that too. Gunny's FlyWire channel is one of my go-to's. He does a lot of really good stuff
Absolutely!
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Killratio
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Re: How long does it take to have an accident?

Post by Killratio »

DHenriquesA2A wrote: 04 Jan 2022, 10:39
1. Man
2. Machine
3. Environment

These three factors after intensive investigation will usually add up to reach a "Probable Cause"

Sounds simple enough. You wouldn't BELIEVE how difficult the process is that involves reaching the point where probable cause can be determined.
I played around for a few years analysing WW1 crash photos. Cause was usually not the issue but impact angle, speed etc could be guessed at.

I don't envy you the job when the results determined are actually important to current pilots and families!
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DHenriques_
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Re: How long does it take to have an accident?

Post by DHenriques_ »

Killratio wrote: 05 Jan 2022, 21:33
DHenriquesA2A wrote: 04 Jan 2022, 10:39
1. Man
2. Machine
3. Environment

These three factors after intensive investigation will usually add up to reach a "Probable Cause"

Sounds simple enough. You wouldn't BELIEVE how difficult the process is that involves reaching the point where probable cause can be determined.
I played around for a few years analysing WW1 crash photos. Cause was usually not the issue but impact angle, speed etc could be guessed at.

I don't envy you the job when the results determined are actually important to current pilots and families!
For me, it has been heartbreaking on occasion. I'm involved at present with a fatal accident that took the life of a pilot I have worked with on safety issues for over 20 years; one of the finest pilots on the planet and a wonderful friend and associate.
D

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Killratio
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Re: How long does it take to have an accident?

Post by Killratio »

I'm very sorry to hear that Dudley. I hope the investigation goes as well as possible for you!

I have been very fortunate with my circle of aviation friends and acquaintances. I have only ever lost one, a man I knew fairly well and flew with on several occasions as a lad, including three or four times at night. Coincidentally, I was later taught to fly by the son of the man in the right hand seat that night, who had just " gone along for the ride" .

Hard to believe it was over forty years ago now!!!

In fact it was watching Arthur fly aerobatics that first got me interested in doing so. He had flown Spitfires and Hurricanes in the Indian Airforce as a young man.


Another half dozen people I know have been injured but none really seriously. A quite extraordinary record in 45 years association and nearly 30 flying (albeit not much the last ten years). Of course here in WA the country is flat and the weather generally devoid of extremes (apart from heat). That obvioulsy makes a huge difference to the risk profile.

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